Model of Autoregression — Integrated Moving Mean in Problems of Expert Simulation of Telecommunication Systems with Complex Spasmodic Structures

An algorithm of adaptive stochastic estimation of values of expert quality factors of the simulated telecommunication system is given which is developed on the basis of Kalman filtration algorithms and statistical analysis of time series. The algorithm serves as a foundation for forming the expert decisions under condition of various type levels of the a priori uncertainty and instability of processes being simulated.